盡管近期的光通訊市場存在的一定的不確定性,但是縱觀全局，2011-2015的光通訊市場增勢還是可見一斑。2010年光器件和模塊的銷售狀況也提前顯示了整個市場的復蘇跡象。

       2011年年初的光器件市場銷售有一定的回落，但是這種狀況不會持續多久，第二季度市場將會恢復增長。

       Lightcounting于2011年四月初推出了最新的市場調研報告，此預測報告重點分析了2011-2015年光收發模塊市場預測，預測數據還包含了2008-2010年的諸多歷史數據。


       

           Figures

• Figure 1: Global sales of optical transceivers (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 2: Growth rates of network traffic and bandwidth
• Figure 3: Sales of optical transceivers used in SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, FTTx and wireless networks
• Figure 4: Sales of FTTx modules, optical interconnects, and transceivers used in wireless infrastructure
• Figure 5: ITU statistics on usage of mobile and wireline services
• Figure 6:  WDM transceiver unit shipments by data rate (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 7: Shipments of 40 Gbps ports by modulation format
• Figure 8:  Tunable 10-Gbps WDM transceiver unit shipments by form factor (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 9: Sales of SONET/SDH modules by data rate
• Figure 10:  Sales of OC-192 transceivers by form factor (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 11:  FTTx Transceiver unit shipments by type (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 12: Sales of Optical Modules used in Wireless Infrastructure
• Figure 13: Sales of datacom optical transceivers by application (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 14:  10GigE transceiver unit shipments by reach (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 15:  10GigE unit shipments by transceiver form factor (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 16:  Ethernet transceiver unit shipments by data rate (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 17:  40GigE and 100GigE transceiver unit shipments (Forecast)
• Figure 18:  Fibre Channel transceiver unit shipments by data rate (Historical data and forecast)
• Figure 19:  Optical interconnect sales by major product categories (Historical data and forecast) 

         Tables

• Table 1: Global Transceiver Sales Growth Forecasts per Segment
• Table 2: Characteristics of Current and Next-Generation PONs
• Table 3: Aggregated Bandwidth of Interface Modules by Market Segment (historical and forecast data)

          Abstract:

        Despite near term uncertainty in the market, the optical communications industry is well positioned for growth in 2011-2015. Record sales of optical components and modules in 2010 are an early indication of the industry wide recovery. While growth in the optical networking equipment market lagged behind sharp increases in components sales last year, equipment sales are expected to accelerate in 2011. A slowdown in component sales reported by suppliers in early 2011 should not last for more than a quarter or two and this market will return to growth in the second part of 2011, as fluctuations in the industry supply chain even out. Lightcounting expects growth rates in the optical component market to remain higher than the networking equipment market over the next several years, since optics accounts for an increasingly larger fraction of equipment vendor cost and revenue.
 
        The forecast report presents an analysis of infrastructure upgrades of the top ten network operators, a summary of trends in the networking equipment market and a detailed analysis of the forecast for optical components and modules. The forecast database (offered as an Excel file) includes historical data from 2008 to 2010, as well as a forecast through 2015 for optical components and modules used in Ethernet, Fibre Channel, SONET/SDH, CWDM/DWDM, wireless infrastructure, FTTx, and high performance computing applications. Historical sales data for the period from 2008 to 2010 is based on data from more than 30 transceiver vendors, including 25 vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting. The market forecast out to 2015 is based on LightCounting‘s model which correlates transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected subscribers of FTTx systems. 

      Executive Summary

        Sales of optical components and modules increased more than 35% in 2010, recovering from the market slowdown in late 2008 and early 2009. At the same time, capital expenditures (CapEx) of leading service providers increased by only 3% in 2010, while sales of optical networking equipment were flat for the year. Despite poor correlation in growth rates across the supply chain, industry momentum is positive: the 3% increase in CapEx for 2010 is an improvement from a 9% decline in 2009; flat sales in optical networking is also a step up from a 4% decline in this market in 2009. We expect global carrier CapEx and sales of optical networking equipment to resume moderate growth in 2011 driven by 4G deployments and optical infrastructure upgrades, with growth continuing through 2015. Sales of optical components and modules are expected to grow significantly faster, as illustrated by data on optical transceiver sales presented in Figure 1. 

        Figure 1: Global sales of optical transceivers (includes historical and forecast data)